Standard Chartered analysts Edward Lee and Jonathan Koh anticipate that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will steepen the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (SGD NEER) slope by 50 basis points in April, raising it to +1.0% per annum while maintaining the centre and the +/-2% policy band unchanged [1]. This move is expected to partially reverse the pre-emptive easing implemented in the first half of 2025, with MAS likely to reassess its stance based on developments in the Middle East [1].
The analysts cite higher oil prices and increased inflation forecasts as key drivers behind their expectations. Specifically, Standard Chartered has raised both its core and headline inflation forecasts for Singapore in 2026 to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 1.5% [1]. Singapore's safe-haven status is also highlighted as a supportive factor for the currency [1].
Market-wise, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive outlook on the Singapore Dollar relative to regional peers and prefers to fade dips in SGD NEER when it is approximately 1.0–1.5% above the policy mid-point [1]. No immediate market reactions or analyst opinions beyond Standard Chartered's outlook are discussed in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Standard Chartered expects MAS to tighten its policy by steepening the SGD NEER slope in response to rising oil prices and inflation forecasts. The Singapore Dollar is seen as well-supported, with a constructive outlook versus regional currencies. The anticipated policy shift is likely to have a medium impact on the market, reinforcing Singapore's safe-haven status.