Commerzbank, through analyst Thu Lan Nguyen, has revised its gold price forecasts upward despite a recent sharp pullback of 15% in gold prices. The bank now expects gold to reach USD 5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 and USD 5,200 by the end of next year, marking an increase from previous forecasts of USD 4,900 and USD 4,800 respectively [1]. The revision comes in light of recent developments, including expectations that the Iran war will end in spring, US rate-hike expectations will correct, and the US Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle at the end of this year, lowering its benchmark rate by a total of 75 basis points by the middle of next year [1]. Commerzbank also anticipates US real interest rates to fall over the longer term, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and preserve its safe-haven appeal [1]. The bank explicitly states that it does not believe the recent significant pullback in gold prices is sustainable, reinforcing its bullish outlook for the precious metal [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank's upward revision of gold price targets signals strong confidence in gold's long-term safe-haven status, despite recent volatility. The forecasted Fed rate cuts and declining real yields are expected to support higher gold prices. Market participants may view this as a positive indicator for gold investment in the coming years.