ING economists Bert Colijn and Carsten Brzeski have highlighted a structural shift in the Eurozone’s growth model, which has traditionally relied on exports. According to their analysis, this model is being undermined by higher energy costs, increased competition from China, and a fundamentally altered global trade environment [1]. The economists emphasize that recent events such as the war in the Middle East and US tariffs, while significant, are only part of a broader set of challenges facing the region [1].
Colijn and Brzeski present four stylised scenarios for the Eurozone’s future growth trajectory. The central uncertainty, they argue, is not whether Europe will become more dependent on domestic demand or continue to rely on exports, but whether it can generate sufficient productivity growth and new competitive advantages to support either model [1]. Both outcomes, they note, require disruptive policy choices focused on productivity, cheaper energy, deeper capital markets, and credible structural reforms [1].
In the first scenario, Europe deliberately shifts away from external demand, successfully strengthening its internal growth model through public and private investment. This scenario envisions a more aggressive transition to renewables and nuclear power, reducing energy dependence and unlocking economic activity through structural reforms [1].
The second scenario describes a situation where exports lose momentum and trade surpluses disappear, but Europe fails to generate enough domestic dynamism to compensate. In this case, higher commodity prices erode purchasing power, and issues such as aging populations and weak productivity dominate. As a result, the European growth model becomes more balanced, but in a negative sense, characterized by stagnation rather than renewed strength [1].
CONCLUSION
ING economists warn that the Eurozone’s export-led growth model is under threat from structural changes in the global economy. The region’s future growth will depend on its ability to boost productivity, secure cheaper energy, and implement deep reforms. The outcome remains uncertain, with both positive and negative scenarios possible depending on policy choices.