Singapore's economy demonstrated resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with real GDP rising by 4.6% year-on-year, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) as cited by DBS economist Chua Han Teng [1]. This growth, while robust, marks a slowdown from the 5.7% year-on-year increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, compared to a 1.3% expansion in Q4 2025 [1].
DBS maintains its 2026 real GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 2.8%, which is broadly in line with the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) expectations for the output gap to average around zero as growth moderates throughout the year [1]. The MAS's recent policy decision was made in the context of still-resilient near-term economic growth, but with significant downside uncertainties anticipated in the coming quarters [1].
Key risks highlighted include the potential impact of the Iran war shock and a broader global economic slowdown, both of which could test Singapore's growth resilience as the year progresses [1]. DBS notes that Singapore's highly open economy remains vulnerable to renewed geopolitical shocks and external headwinds [1].
Overall, while Singapore started 2026 on a strong note, both DBS and MAS expect GDP growth to slow over the course of the year, with external risks posing notable downside threats to the outlook [1].
CONCLUSION
Singapore's Q1 2026 GDP growth was resilient but showed signs of slowing, and both DBS and MAS anticipate further moderation in growth due to external risks. The outlook remains cautious, with downside risks from geopolitical tensions and a potential global slowdown likely to test the economy's resilience.