Gold prices rebounded more than 2% towards an intra-session high of 4510, following comments from Waller that led markets to reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. This shift resulted in lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar, providing support for gold prices [1]. The rebound partially offset a sharp sell-off earlier in the week, which had been triggered by Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole and a rise in global yields that weighed on precious metals [1].
Christopher Wong of OCBC maintains a constructive outlook on gold but emphasizes that near-term direction will remain highly sensitive to changes in Fed rate expectations. Key upcoming data releases, including payrolls, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI), are expected to play a decisive role in determining whether the recent disinflation trend is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold [1].
Geopolitical tensions are described as marginally supportive for gold, while higher oil prices present a two-sided risk by potentially feeding back into inflation expectations and yields. Technically, gold was last seen at 4474, with mild bearish momentum on the daily chart, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen. Immediate resistance is noted at 4520/30, with a decisive break potentially opening the way for another attempt at 4700. Support levels are identified at 4410 and 4360 [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold's rebound reflects shifting market expectations around the Federal Reserve's policy path, with upcoming economic data likely to determine the next move. While the outlook remains constructive, gold's near-term direction is expected to be highly data-sensitive, and geopolitical as well as inflation risks continue to influence sentiment.