Central banks across several emerging and developed markets are expected to keep policy rates unchanged at upcoming meetings, reflecting a cautious approach amid evolving inflation dynamics. Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad anticipates that Chile, Poland, Peru, and Türkiye will maintain their current rates, with Chile’s central bank likely holding at 4.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting due to inflation expectations aligning with its 3% target and copper price strength supporting the Chilean Peso (CLP) [1]. Poland’s National Bank is also expected to keep its rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, supported by positive real rates and a favorable balance of payments, though the swaps curve suggests potential tightening to 4.50% over the next twelve months as inflation gains traction [1]. Peru’s central bank is set to hold at 4.25% for the twelfth meeting, but risks underperformance of the Peruvian Sol (PEN) if real rates remain negative [1]. Türkiye’s central bank is expected to keep rates at 37.00% for a fifth meeting, with disinflation stalling around 30% year-on-year, justifying continued tight policy [1].
In the Czech Republic, August CPI matched both market expectations and the Czech National Bank’s (CNB) forecast, rising to 1.9% year-on-year from 1.7% in July, which allows the CNB to keep rates unchanged at its September 17 meeting [2]. While headline inflation remains within target, underlying momentum is building, with core inflation estimated at 3% year-on-year and services inflation elevated at 4.5% year-on-year [2]. Fuel prices surged by an estimated 7% month-on-month, offset by a 1.1% drop in food prices [2]. Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that although a September rate hike is unlikely, the preconditions for a hike are intensifying and the CNB’s wait-and-see stance may end by November if core inflation and wages continue to rise [2].
In the United States, TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect August CPI to be subdued enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold in September, with the CPI-to-PCE translation pointing to contained underlying inflation [3]. Governor Waller has expressed a preference to pause rate hikes as long as inflation data supports this, but cautioned that an upside surprise could trigger action [3]. TD Securities forecasts core PCE at 0.18% month-on-month and market-based at 0.13%, numbers that would likely satisfy centrist FOMC members and support a hold in September [3]. The Fed is expected to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, with inflation projected to stay high for the rest of the year and the labor market stabilizing, allowing the FOMC to focus on its inflation mandate [3]. If the Fed does move rates this year, TD Securities believes a hike is more likely than a cut [3].
CONCLUSION
Central banks in Chile, Poland, Peru, Türkiye, the Czech Republic, and the United States are expected to maintain current policy rates in the near term, supported by inflation data and market conditions. While most are adopting a wait-and-see approach, underlying inflation pressures in some regions could prompt future hikes. Market sentiment remains cautiously positive, with medium impact expected as investors monitor inflation trends and central bank signals.