Societe Generale strategists report that the EUR/PLN currency pair has recently rebounded after defending an ascending trend line from February 2025 near the 4.2100 level. The pair continues to oscillate around its 200-day moving average (200-DMA), currently at 4.2437, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the short term. Price action is expected to remain confined within a range of 4.2100 to 4.2600, with a breakout beyond these boundaries necessary to confirm a new trend direction [1].
The strategists note that the forecast for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) meeting is for no change in the policy rate, which is expected to remain at 3.75%. However, they highlight that a hawkish statement or press conference by Governor Glapiński could push EUR/PLN back below the 200-DMA. Despite an upside surprise in April's CPI, mainly driven by fuel and energy prices, renewed policy tightening is considered unlikely as long as inflation remains within the tolerance band over the medium term [1].
Market pricing currently implies up to four rate hikes over the next 12 months, potentially taking the policy rate to 4.75%. Societe Generale expects this market pricing to gradually subside, which could support the front end of the curve. The strategists also emphasize the need for vigilance regarding oil prices, second-round effects, and the possibility of future tightening, which should keep short-term interest rates supported in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
EUR/PLN remains range-bound around its 200-DMA as markets await the outcome of the NBP meeting, with no immediate policy change expected. While market pricing suggests potential rate hikes, Societe Generale anticipates this will moderate, keeping short-term rates supported. A breakout from the current trading range is needed to establish a new trend.