Both the AUD/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs are consolidating near recent highs during the Asian session on Thursday, influenced by a combination of geopolitical developments and the US Federal Reserve's dovish outlook. The AUD/USD pair remains close to a nearly three-week high, trading below the mid-0.7000s, after registering gains over the past three days. The pair is currently oscillating around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall, with technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index at 57 and a rising MACD suggesting gradually improving upside momentum. Key resistance is identified at 0.7046, with further targets at 0.7106 and 0.7182, while support levels are noted at 0.7004, 0.6962, and 0.6910, with the 100-day SMA at 0.6855 and the March low at 0.6826 reinforcing a broader demand zone on deeper pullbacks [1].
The EUR/USD pair, meanwhile, finds support near the 1.1650 region, having stalled its pullback from an over one-month high. The pair's upside is capped by the 1.1670 confluence hurdle, which includes the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-March decline. The RSI is around 56 and the MACD remains positive, indicating that downside pressure is easing, though a clear bullish reversal is not yet confirmed. Bulls are advised to wait for a sustained move above 1.1670 and 1.1700 before targeting further gains toward 1.1747 and 1.1827, with support at 1.1568 and a deeper pullback potentially exposing the 1.1409 region [2].
Geopolitical tensions, specifically Iran's shutdown of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to withdraw from the ceasefire with the US following Israeli air strikes across Lebanon, have provided a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and limited gains in both AUD/USD and EUR/USD. However, the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance, indicating the possibility of one interest rate cut this year if inflation trends lower, has capped the USD's upside and lent some support to both currency pairs [1][2]. Experts cited in the articles remain skeptical about the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire, which continues to influence market sentiment [2].
No explicit analyst opinions or forward-looking statements beyond technical analysis and the Fed's guidance are provided in the sources. Market reactions are characterized by consolidation and cautious trading near key technical levels, with both pairs awaiting decisive moves for further direction [1][2].
CONCLUSION
The AUD/USD and EUR/USD pairs are consolidating near recent highs, with market participants closely watching geopolitical developments and the US Federal Reserve's policy outlook. While technical indicators suggest easing downside pressure, both pairs remain capped by key resistance levels, and traders are advised to await clear breakouts before positioning for further gains. The overall market sentiment is cautious amid ongoing geopolitical risks and dovish Fed guidance.