The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded near the 0.6880 level against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, slipping from Friday's close and approaching a three-month low as traders awaited key catalysts from both Australia and China [1]. The AUD has been under pressure over the past month, while the USD remains supported by investor caution ahead of important US labor market data later in the week [1].
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock participated in a panel discussion on Sunday at the Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture in Basel, focusing on payments and digital money. Although the discussion was not centered on near-term rates, markets are anticipating the official transcript, which the RBA will release on Tuesday, for any potential comments related to monetary policy, inflation, or financial stability [1].
The release of the RBA Meeting Minutes early Tuesday is a focal point for investors, as it is expected to provide more detail on the Board's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% during the June meeting, following a previous 75-basis-point rate increase [1]. Governor Bullock previously stated that inflation 'remains too high' and that maintaining rates would allow the Board to assess the impact of earlier tightening measures on the economy [1].
Chinese economic data is also in focus, with the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs due on Tuesday. The manufacturing PMI is expected to edge into slight expansion at 50.1 in June, up from 50.0 in May, while the non-manufacturing PMI is anticipated to decline slightly to 49.9 from 50.1. Stronger Chinese data could support the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China, whereas weaker data would likely weigh further on AUD sentiment [1].
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD trades at 0.6884, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it remains below both the 20-period SMA at 0.6898 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7002. The pair faces immediate resistance at 0.6886, with further resistance at 0.6904 and 0.6917, while initial support is at 0.6878. A break below this level could lead to further declines in the coming sessions [1].
CONCLUSION
The Australian Dollar remains under pressure near a three-month low as markets await the RBA Meeting Minutes and key Chinese economic data. The outlook for the AUD will depend on signals from the RBA regarding monetary policy and the strength of upcoming Chinese PMI figures, with technical indicators suggesting a bearish bias in the near term.