The International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that Europe could run out of jet fuel in as few as six weeks due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as leading to 'the largest energy crisis we have ever faced' [1]. Birol emphasized the severity of the situation, stating that the longer the blockade continues, the greater the negative impact on global economic growth and inflation, with some regions being hit harder than others [1].
Birol highlighted that the crisis is expected to result in higher petrol, gas, and electricity prices, and warned that energy rationing may soon be necessary in many countries, especially emerging economies [1]. He noted that the loss of oil supply in April is projected to be twice that of March, compounding the effects of constrained LNG and other energy sources [1].
Analysts echoed these concerns, with Claudio Galimberti of Rystad Energy stating that the situation for airlines depends heavily on the volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, observed that vessels have stopped, leading to a halt in Middle Eastern supplies and the urgent need for replacements [1].
The economic stakes are significant, as air travel contributes 851 billion euros (nearly $1 trillion) to European GDP annually and supports 14 million jobs, according to ACI Europe [1]. European airline EasyJet reported that the Middle East conflict and rising fuel costs are already affecting customer bookings, with ticket purchases for later in the year down 2% compared to 2025 [1]. The airline incurred approximately £25 million ($34 million) in additional fuel costs in March and has hedged at least 70% of its summer fuel needs to mitigate volatility [1]. ACI Europe also warned that peak summer travel will be disrupted, with severe economic consequences for several EU member states reliant on tourism [1].
CONCLUSION
The IEA's warning signals a severe and escalating energy crisis for Europe, with immediate risks to jet fuel supplies, rising costs, and potential energy rationing. The situation is already impacting airlines and could have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly for countries dependent on air travel and tourism. Market participants should closely monitor developments as the crisis unfolds.