According to BNP Paribas, China's GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, up from 4.5% in Q4 2025. For the full year 2025, GDP growth stood at 5%, but the bank expects a moderate slowdown in 2026. The report describes the growth pattern as 'K-shaped,' with robust export performance contrasted by weak domestic demand and persistent stress in the property sector [1].
BNP Paribas notes that Chinese authorities are likely to maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies, though these measures are expected to remain modest, even as the global environment becomes less supportive. The bank also anticipates that deflationary pressures will ease in 2026, attributing this to higher global energy prices and the implementation of anti-involution measures by the authorities [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond BNP Paribas' outlook are mentioned in the article. The report does not provide details on stock market movements or specific company impacts [1].
CONCLUSION
China's economy showed an acceleration in early 2026, but BNP Paribas expects growth to moderate over the year. While policy support remains in place, it is likely to be modest, and easing deflationary pressures may provide some relief. The outlook suggests a cautious but stable environment for China's economic trajectory.