Citi Mexico released its Expectations Survey, polling 35 economists on their forecasts for Mexico's monetary policy, exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth. The survey results indicate that the majority of economists expect the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to keep its policy rate steady at 6.50%. Of those surveyed, seven anticipate the next move to be a rate hike, while six foresee a rate cut further ahead; the remainder expect no change in policy direction [1].
Regarding the Mexican Peso, the consensus among economists is that the USD/MXN exchange rate will end 2026 at 17.90, unchanged from previous expectations. Looking further ahead, the exchange rate is projected to depreciate to 18.50 by 2027, with a trading range between 17.40 and 19.95 anticipated [1].
Inflation expectations have moderated, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July projected at 3.13% year-over-year, down from 3.37% in the prior survey. Core CPI is also expected to decline to 3.94% year-over-year from 4.03%. For the medium term, CPI is forecast to end at 4.02% year-over-year, a decrease from 4.09%, while Core CPI is expected to drop from 4.10% to 4% [1].
Economic growth projections have slightly improved, with GDP expected to grow by 1.2% in 2026, up from 1.1% in the last survey. For 2027, GDP growth is projected to remain unchanged at 1.8% [1].
CONCLUSION
The Citi Mexico Expectations Survey suggests a stable outlook for Mexican monetary policy, with most economists anticipating no change in Banxico's policy rate and a steady USD/MXN exchange rate through 2026. Inflation and growth forecasts have improved modestly, indicating cautious optimism about Mexico's economic trajectory.