Global crude oil inventories are projected to fall below 100 days' worth of demand in May 2026 due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for international oil shipments [1]. The blockade has resulted in persistent disruptions to oil deliveries, leading to a steady depletion of accumulated stockpiles that previously helped stabilize the market [1]. As a result, available inventories are expected to drop beneath the 100-day threshold relative to current demand this month [1].
Industry analysts highlight that the continued restriction of tanker movements through the Strait—driven by ongoing regional tensions—has made it increasingly challenging for refineries, especially in Asia, to secure adequate crude oil supplies [1]. This tightening of supply is evident in the spot market, where premiums and future contracts are reflecting expectations of a prolonged period of constrained availability [1].
While there are some indications that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen, market participants remain cautious. Even with a potential reopening, analysts do not expect inventories to recover quickly, suggesting that the supply shortfall will persist in the near term [1]. The ongoing situation is anticipated to maintain upward pressure on global oil prices and contribute to heightened volatility in energy markets [1].
CONCLUSION
The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is driving global oil inventories below 100 days of demand, intensifying supply constraints and market volatility. Despite some optimism for a reopening, analysts expect the supply shortfall and elevated prices to persist in the near future.