U.S. Treasury yields remained flat on Friday as investors processed a series of significant economic data releases and ongoing geopolitical developments. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was unchanged at 4.390%, while the 2-year note yield held at 3.890% and the 30-year bond yield stayed at 4.983% [1]. This stability in yields followed the Commerce Department's report that first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized rate, which, although an improvement from the 0.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, fell short of Wall Street's consensus estimate of 2.2% [1].
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, attributed the GDP shortfall to supply shocks resulting from the ongoing war in the Middle East, warning that continued conflict could further slow economic expansion [1]. Inflation data also drew attention, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising 0.7% in March, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.5%, in line with forecasts. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year [1].
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a factor, as President Donald Trump faces a 60-day deadline under the War Powers Resolution regarding U.S. military action in Iran. The administration contends that a ceasefire reached three weeks ago has ended hostilities, potentially negating the need for Congressional approval, as there has been no direct fire since April 7 [1].
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, as widely anticipated [1]. In the U.K., Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the uncertainty surrounding energy prices and warned that a prolonged energy price shock could embed inflation more deeply into the economy, possibly prompting further monetary tightening [1].
CONCLUSION
Treasury yields remained steady as investors weighed weaker-than-expected GDP growth, persistent inflation, and ongoing geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates and concerns about energy-driven inflation suggest continued market caution. The outlook remains uncertain, with both economic and geopolitical developments likely to influence future market moves.