According to a new analysis by Realtor.com, nearly 14 million homes currently owned by baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation are expected to be released to the U.S. housing market between 2026 and 2036, as these generations age out of homeownership [1]. This represents a 33.7% increase, or 3.5 million more homes, compared to the prior decade's pace for older households, and a 74% increase, or 5.9 million more homes, over what was handed off in the last decade [1].
However, the report highlights that this influx will have a relatively minor impact on the supply of starter homes—defined as homes with two or fewer bedrooms—because of a high retention rate in this category. Only 0.38 million starter homes are expected to be released over the next decade, with an annualized release rate of 38,000 per year, accounting for just 3.2% of starter home listings in 2026 [1]. Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu noted that the direct impact on first-time buyers will likely be limited, but there is an indirect mechanism: as current starter home owners trade up to larger homes, their starter homes become available, though this process will take time to materialize [1].
The generational shift is expected to have a more significant effect on the supply of family homes (three or four bedrooms) and large homes. An estimated 9.9 million family homes are projected to be released over the next 10 years, with about 1 million released annually, accounting for 24.7% of recent listings in this category [1]. Large homes are expected to see an average release of 360,000 units per year, which would represent 67.2% of recent listings; even if only half reach the market, it would still mark the largest relative increase among all segments analyzed [1].
The report also notes that the 10-year retention rate among boomers and the Silent Generation is projected at 70.7% for starter homes, compared to 61.2% for family homes and 63.6% for large homes [1]. This generational succession could create more affordable access to family and large homes for those currently in starter homes, but the impact on first-time buyers seeking entry-level properties will be limited in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
While the aging of baby boomers and the Silent Generation is set to release millions of homes onto the market over the next decade, the immediate benefit for first-time buyers seeking starter homes will be limited due to high retention rates in that segment. The most significant market impact is expected in the family and large home categories, potentially improving affordability and availability for move-up buyers.