The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that jet fuel supplies and prices will take months to normalize following disruptions caused by the Middle East war, even though the Strait of Hormuz has reopened for shipping. Willie Walsh, IATA's director general, stated in Singapore that it is difficult to predict the exact timeline for recovery, but emphasized that 'it's not going to happen quickly' and that 'it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East' [1].
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, had been virtually paralyzed for weeks due to the conflict, resulting in increased prices for crude oil and related products [1]. Oil prices plunged on Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which will temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement was reached just before a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had threatened military action against Iran [1]. Tehran subsequently confirmed it would allow safe passage through the strait, which handles a fifth of global oil and gas shipments [1].
Walsh highlighted that even with the resumption of crude flow, disruptions in refining capacity mean the supply problem will persist for some time. He noted that the concentration of refining capacity in certain regions exacerbates the issue, and that 'past experience shows that the aviation industry will respond to higher oil prices by raising ticket prices,' describing this as 'inevitable' [1].
While some air traffic has temporarily shifted to airlines outside the Middle East, Walsh described this as a short-term solution, stating that 'there's no way they can replace the capacity that was provided by the Gulf carriers.' He expressed confidence that Gulf hubs will recover quickly once the situation stabilizes [1].
CONCLUSION
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran have eased immediate supply concerns, but IATA expects jet fuel supplies and prices to take months to recover due to ongoing disruptions in refining capacity. The aviation industry is likely to respond with higher ticket prices, and Gulf carriers are expected to regain their market position once supply normalizes.