The Swiss Franc (CHF) remained stable against the US Dollar (USD), with USD/CHF trading around 0.7870 during Asian hours on Tuesday after modest gains the previous day. This calmness comes as traders await the release of Swiss Trade Balance data later in the day, while the US Dollar stays firm due to increased safe-haven demand following reports that Tehran has halted indirect negotiations with the United States. According to Tasnimnewsagency, Iran and its 'Resistance Front' allies have set an agenda to block the Strait of Hormuz and activate additional fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a punitive measure against Israel and its supporters. Axios further reported that Iran deployed additional naval mines in the strait last week, exacerbating the crisis and effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies [1].
These renewed Middle East tensions are fueling global inflation concerns and raising expectations for higher Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rates. Financial markets are now pricing in a 39% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool [1].
On the Swiss economic front, recent data showed mixed but generally strong performance. Switzerland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March, slightly below market estimates of 0.5%. However, retail sales surged by 1.6% year-on-year in April 2026, far surpassing the expected 0.2% increase and following an upwardly revised 1% gain in March. The industrial sector also showed robust growth, with the procure.ch–UBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.3 in May 2026 from 54.5 in April, beating the market forecast of 54 and marking the highest expansion since July 2022 [1].
Overall, the combination of geopolitical risks and resilient Swiss economic data is keeping the Swiss Franc steady, with market participants closely watching upcoming trade balance figures and Fed policy signals for further direction [1].
CONCLUSION
The Swiss Franc's stability reflects a balance between strong domestic economic data and heightened global risk sentiment due to Middle East tensions. Market participants are awaiting further cues from Swiss trade data and potential Fed policy moves, with inflation and geopolitical developments likely to remain key drivers in the near term.