The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) is scheduled to release its quarterly GDP data at 02:00 GMT on Thursday, with market consensus estimating a 1.3% growth for the first quarter (Q1), up from 1.2% in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the Chinese economy is forecast to expand by 4.8%, compared to 4.5% in the prior reading [1]. Alongside GDP, Retail Sales are expected to increase by 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in March, down from 2.8% previously, while Industrial Production is projected to rise by 5.5% YoY, compared to 6.3% prior [1].
AUD/USD is trading positively ahead of the release of China's GDP, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data, buoyed by a weakening US Dollar and optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran [1]. Analysts note that stronger-than-expected Chinese data could further lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with resistance levels identified at the March 11 high of 0.7187 and the psychological 0.7200 mark. Conversely, downside support is seen at the April 10 low of 0.7054, with further losses potentially targeting the 0.7000 level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6900 [1].
The GDP data is considered the main measure of China’s economic activity, and a high reading is generally viewed as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY). The health of the Chinese economy is a key driver for the Australian Dollar, given Australia’s status as a resource-rich country and China being its largest trading partner [1].
No forward-looking statements or analyst opinions beyond the technical levels and potential AUD reaction are provided in the source. The next release of China’s quarterly GDP is scheduled for April 16, 2026 [1].
CONCLUSION
China's Q1 GDP is expected to show accelerated growth, which could positively impact the Australian Dollar, especially if the data exceeds forecasts. Market sentiment is currently favorable for AUD/USD, supported by US Dollar weakness and optimism over geopolitical developments. Investors will closely watch the release for confirmation of economic momentum and potential currency moves.