Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad anticipates that several major central banks in Asia and emerging markets—including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), National Bank of Poland (NBP), Peru’s central bank (BCRP), and Bank of Korea (BOK)—will keep their policy rates unchanged at their upcoming meetings this week [1]. Specifically, the RBI is expected to maintain its policy rate at 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, although there is a risk that the RBI could shift its neutral stance to a more restrictive one due to a worsening inflation outlook [1].
The NBP is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% after a 25 basis point cut at its last meeting on March 4, with the next meeting scheduled for Thursday. Market participants are closely watching whether Governor Adam Glapinski will support or oppose rate hike expectations, as the swaps curve is pricing in 60 basis points of hikes over the next twelve months [1].
Peru’s central bank (BCRP) is expected to hold rates at 4.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting on Thursday. However, the risk of a rate hike cannot be ruled out, as both headline and core CPI inflation accelerated in March, surpassing the bank’s 1 to 3% target range [1].
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is also expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for a seventh consecutive meeting on Friday. There is a risk that the Monetary Policy Board could adopt a more hawkish stance in its rate projections, potentially signaling hikes instead of a steady rate outlook over the next six months [1].
CONCLUSION
Central banks in Asia and emerging markets are widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged this week, but inflation risks and market expectations could prompt shifts in their policy stances. Investors should monitor forward guidance and inflation data closely, as asymmetric risks remain for potential rate hikes or hawkish shifts. The overall market impact is medium, with sentiment slightly cautious due to inflation concerns.