The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% for an extended period, following a rate cut in March, according to ING’s Frantisek Taborsky. Market participants have already priced out most further tightening, with less than 20 basis points of hikes expected over the next year—the lowest in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. The recent US-Iran ceasefire has contributed to this normalization in rates pricing, and the Polish Zloty (PLN) has recovered, erasing about half of its conflict-related depreciation. However, ING notes that a full return to pre-conflict EUR/PLN levels below 4.220 will likely be gradual, contingent on continued risk-on sentiment and geopolitical stability. The government’s intervention in the fuel market is expected to help keep inflation within the central bank’s tolerance band, supporting the case for steady rates. The market’s focus is on the NBP Governor’s press conference, which may provide further guidance on the central bank’s direction [1].
In Sweden, Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke reports that the Riksbank is also expected to maintain its current policy stance despite softer-than-expected inflation data. The preliminary Swedish consumer price index for March fell to 1.6% year-on-year (versus 2.2% expected), and core inflation dropped to 1.1% (versus 1.5% expected). The Riksbank had already forecast inflation to fall well below target, and is likely to look through these temporary downside surprises, especially given the risk of rising oil prices. The analyst notes that the Swedish Krona (SEK) remains primarily influenced by global risk sentiment rather than shifting rate expectations, as demonstrated by the market’s reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire. The Riksbank is expected to remain vigilant but sees no immediate reason to alter its policy stance [2].
Both central banks are navigating a landscape shaped by geopolitical developments and inflation dynamics. In Poland, the combination of stable rates, government measures to control inflation, and improved risk sentiment has supported the Zloty’s recovery. In Sweden, the Riksbank’s confidence in its inflation outlook and focus on external risks suggest a steady policy path, with the Krona’s performance tied more to global risk appetite than domestic rate changes [1][2].
CONCLUSION
Both the National Bank of Poland and the Riksbank are expected to keep rates unchanged, reflecting confidence in their current policy stances amid easing inflation and improved geopolitical conditions. Market reactions in both countries are being driven more by risk sentiment than by expectations of further rate moves, suggesting a period of stability for the PLN and SEK if current trends persist.