US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, reversing his earlier stance in a CNBC interview where he stated, 'I don't want to extend' the truce with Tehran [6]. The extension was later confirmed via Truth Social, citing Tehran's 'seriously fractured' government as the reason for prolonging negotiations [6]. The White House also confirmed that US Vice President JD Vance's planned trip to Pakistan was cancelled, and Tehran has not decided whether to send a delegation for further talks this week [1][2][6]. The US military continues to blockade Iranian ports, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described as 'an act of war' and a 'violation of the ceasefire' [2][3][4]. Trump clarified that the blockade would remain intact despite the ceasefire extension [4].
The ongoing standoff has kept energy markets on edge. Brent crude for June delivery remains elevated near USD100 per barrel, supported by disruption risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. WTI oil prices, however, eased to $87.50 after peaking at $91.60 on Tuesday, reflecting a correction following the ceasefire extension [2][4]. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed US crude oil inventories dropped by 4.4 million barrels in the week of April 17, beating expectations and highlighting strong demand [2]. MUFG analyst Lloyd Chan noted that broader macro markets, including the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields, remain relatively contained despite the elevated oil prices [3].
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose 2.3% to near $78.50 as oil prices corrected, benefiting from a slight downtick in the US Dollar Index, which traded 0.13% lower at 98.27 [4]. The inverse relationship between silver and oil prices has persisted since the start of the US-Iran conflict, with higher energy prices previously boosting inflation expectations and discouraging central banks from cutting rates [4]. Technical analysis suggests silver maintains a neutral near-term bias, with resistance at $81.33 and support at $77.00 [4].
In currency markets, the NZD/USD pair advanced above 0.5900, nearing 0.5915, buoyed by the ceasefire extension and New Zealand's annual inflation rate holding steady at 3.1% in Q1 2026, above expectations of 2.9% [1]. Analysts at Kiwibank and Westpac indicated that persistent domestic inflation may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer [1]. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced slight selling pressure after UK core and services inflation cooled, but headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% YoY, partly attributed to higher energy prices amid Middle East conflicts [5].
Forward-looking statements from Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that disruptions at key choke points like the Strait of Hormuz represent the 'weaponization of interdependence,' and that escalation in the Pacific could be even more severe [6]. Pre-market indicators suggest a higher open for trade across Europe and the US, while Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a record high despite broader Asia-Pacific market concerns [6]. Kevin Warsh, nominated as Fed chair, emphasized independence from the White House during his Senate Banking Committee hearing [4][6].
CONCLUSION
The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has eased immediate geopolitical tensions, leading to a correction in oil prices and a rise in silver. However, the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports and stalled peace talks maintain elevated risks for energy flows, keeping Brent prices high. Currency and commodity markets remain volatile, with analysts and policymakers closely monitoring inflation and central bank responses amid persistent uncertainty.