Commerzbank, through analyst Norman Liebke, has revised its forecasts for European gas and German power prices higher, citing a combination of tighter European storage, increased reliance on LNG, and ongoing structural constraints on Qatari exports [1]. The bank now expects the gas price to reach EUR 50 per MWh by year-end, up from its previous forecast of EUR 45 per MWh, while the forecast for end-2027 remains unchanged at EUR 40 per MWh [1].
German power prices (month-ahead) have also been revised upwards, with the year-end forecast now at EUR 110 per MWh, and only partial easing anticipated by the end of 2027 [1]. A key factor influencing these upward revisions is the continued restriction on Qatari LNG exports, which are expected to remain reduced by one fifth over the next three to five years due to partial destruction at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, even if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened [1].
Additionally, the phase-out of Russian gas imports, approved in January, presents further upside risk to prices. This phase-out will take effect from early 2027 for LNG and from autumn 2027 for pipeline gas [1]. Commerzbank highlights that these structural changes in supply are likely to keep prices elevated, with only limited relief expected in the medium term [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank's upward revision of gas and power price forecasts reflects ongoing supply constraints and the impending phase-out of Russian gas imports. The market is expected to face elevated prices in the near term, with only partial easing by 2027. These developments signal significant market impact and heightened price risks for European energy markets.