Gold has experienced a record-breaking ten consecutive sessions of decline, with spot prices dropping more than 1% in the morning, according to ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson [1]. This marks the longest losing streak on record for gold, which has now fallen every week since the conflict began on 28 February [1]. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices, the negative impact of higher real yields and a stronger dollar has outweighed these supportive factors for gold [1].
The analysts note that the conflict has contributed to inflationary risks, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period, which is a significant headwind for non-yielding assets like gold [1]. Additionally, the recent weakness in gold prices has been exacerbated by forced selling, as investors liquidate gold positions to cover losses in other parts of their portfolios, rather than due to a deterioration in gold's longer-term fundamentals [1].
Looking ahead, ING stresses that gold's trajectory will depend less on geopolitical headlines and more on how these events influence inflation, monetary policy expectations, and real interest rates [1]. Near-term risks for gold have increased, suggesting continued volatility as investors weigh these macroeconomic factors [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold's record losing streak highlights the dominance of macroeconomic factors such as real yields and dollar strength over geopolitical tensions. The market takeaway is that gold's near-term direction will be shaped primarily by inflation and monetary policy expectations, with elevated risks persisting for non-yielding assets.