China's latest trade data for copper presents a mixed picture, according to ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. In May, unwrought copper imports increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 445.7 thousand tonnes. However, the year-to-date volume of unwrought copper imports is down 7% year-on-year at 2.01 million tonnes, a trend attributed to higher domestic refined copper output in China [1].
Copper concentrate imports also softened, falling 1% year-on-year in May to 2.36 million tonnes, with year-to-date volumes down 1.4% [1]. Meanwhile, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates a pullback in net long copper positions, which fell by 5,761 lots to 63,001 after five consecutive weeks of increases [1].
In related ferrous markets, iron ore imports into China declined 0.4% year-on-year and 5.9% month-on-month to 97.7 million tonnes in May. Despite this, year-to-date iron ore flows are up 6.3%, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing activity, even as real estate demand remains weak [1].
The combination of mixed trade data and a reduction in speculative long positions suggests uncertainty in the copper market, with no clear directional bias emerging from the latest figures [1].
CONCLUSION
China's copper trade data for May highlights both increased monthly imports and weaker year-to-date performance, reflecting complex supply and demand dynamics. The pullback in speculative positions further underscores market uncertainty. Investors may remain cautious as the market digests these mixed signals.