Meteorologists are warning of an unusually powerful El Niño event potentially forming later in 2026, raising concerns about global food security at a time when fuel and fertilizer costs are already surging due to the ongoing Iran war [1]. U.S. meteorologists estimate a one-in-three chance of a strong El Niño developing between October and December, while European climate models suggest an even higher probability of a very strong or 'super El Niño.' However, the so-called spring barrier means these forecasts may be inaccurate [1].
El Niño is defined by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, with a 'super El Niño' understood to mean an exceptionally strong phase where temperatures increase at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal, though this category is not officially recognized by scientists [1]. Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, highlighted that food prices are being squeezed by both climate extremes and a food system reliant on fossil fuels, which exposes it to spikes in gas, fertilizer, transport, and packaging costs. He emphasized that a strong El Niño could 'turbocharge weather risks in a climate already destabilised by human emissions, compounding inflation driven by high fossil fuel prices' [1].
Certain commodities are particularly vulnerable to El Niño, with upward price pressure expected on cocoa, food oils, rice, and sugar. Broader risks also exist for products linked to the tropics, such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate, and soy-fed meat [1]. The anticipation of El Niño follows a multi-year La Niña event, which typically lowers global temperatures compared to normal years [1].
The Iran war has severely disrupted oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global trade. About one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through this strait, but shipping has nearly stopped since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28 [1].
CONCLUSION
The convergence of a potential super El Niño and ongoing disruptions from the Iran war is creating significant risks for global food prices and supply chains. Analysts warn that climate extremes and elevated input costs could compound inflation, especially for key commodities. Market participants should prepare for heightened volatility and price increases in the food sector.