USD/CHF traded flat on Thursday, exhibiting choppy price action as traders remained cautious due to escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and mixed US economic data [1]. At the time of reporting, the currency pair was trading around 0.7845 [1]. The market's attention was focused on whether negotiations between the US and Iran would resume, with the heightened tensions providing some support for the US Dollar despite intraday weakness [1]. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen at 98.67 after reaching an intraday high of 98.80 [1].
US President Donald Trump made strong statements on Truth Social, asserting that the US has 'total control over the Strait of Hormuz' and that no ship can enter or leave without US Navy approval. He further stated that he has ordered the Navy to 'shoot and kill any boat' placing mines in the area, and that the route is 'sealed up tight' until Iran agrees to a deal [1].
On the economic front, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 54, surpassing expectations and up from 52.3 in March, marking a 47-month high. The Services PMI also improved to 51.3, above forecasts of 50 and up from 49.8, reaching a two-month high. However, US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 214,000 for the week ending April 18, above the 212,000 forecast and up from 208,000 previously [1].
Technically, USD/CHF maintains a bearish near-term bias as it remains below both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately 0.7865 and the 200-day SMA near 0.7937. The inability to reclaim these levels suggests that recent upward moves are corrective within a broader downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from below 40 but remains under the midline, indicating continued downside momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 26 points to a moderately directional trend. Resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA (0.7865), with a break higher exposing the 200-day SMA (0.7937), where sellers are expected to reassert control. Until a sustained move above these averages occurs, rallies are likely to be sold into, leaving the pair vulnerable to further downside [1].
CONCLUSION
USD/CHF remains under pressure, capped by key moving averages and weighed by ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed US economic data. The technical outlook suggests further downside risk unless the pair can break above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders await further developments in the US-Iran situation.