President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that the impact of the Iran war on oil prices and the stock market has not been as severe as he initially expected, expressing confidence that the economic damage will reverse once the conflict ends [1]. During a public appearance with Cabinet members, Trump remarked to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that oil prices 'have not gone up as much as I thought,' and predicted that prices would return to previous levels or even lower [1].
U.S. crude prices approached $100 a barrel earlier in the conflict but have since declined, although overall oil prices have surged more than 40% during the war, resulting in gasoline prices rising by over $1 per gallon [1]. The stock market has also been affected, with the S&P 500 down 4.8% in March and 6.5% from its record high earlier in the year [1]. Trump highlighted these metrics as benchmarks for his economic performance, referencing the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 50,000 in early February [1].
Despite Trump's optimism, Wall Street economists have recently increased the probability of a recession within the next 12 months. Most analysts argue that unless the war ends soon, the economic damage from inflation and oil-related repercussions could lead to a contraction [1]. Trump, however, maintains that his predictions regarding economic recovery are accurate and expects a reversal of the current downturn once the conflict concludes [1].
CONCLUSION
President Trump remains optimistic about the economic outlook, predicting a recovery in oil and stock prices once the Iran conflict ends. However, Wall Street economists warn that continued hostilities could increase recession risks due to inflation and elevated oil prices. The market impact remains high, with significant volatility in both oil and equities.