Rabobank analysts Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura report that the Ras Laffan strike and the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz have ended the LNG surplus era, resulting in a sharp repricing of TTF gas futures. The closure, which was precipitated by Iran's effective halt of maritime traffic following multiple strikes on merchant vessels and coastal infrastructure, has reduced tanker movements to near zero and disrupted approximately one-fifth of global LNG flows [1].
The situation has deteriorated further, prompting Rabobank to raise its forecasts to reflect a large, multi-year capacity loss. The Strait of Hormuz is now expected to remain closed until late April, with LNG supply curtailments projected to last significantly longer. Rabobank forecasts total available LNG supply in 2026 at around 443 million tons, nearly unchanged from 2025's 442 million tons, as new U.S. LNG additions this year will not offset outages across the Middle East and North Africa. Egypt is expected to remain a net importer through 2026. Even with modest LNG demand growth, the market is moving into deficit [1].
Rabobank has raised its Q2 2026 TTF gas price forecast to €61/MWh, with full-year 2026 prices around €50/MWh and 2027 at €42/MWh. Q3-Q4 2026 prices are also revised higher, at €50/MWh and €48/MWh respectively. The current supply shortfall and anticipated easing of restrictions later in the year are expected to result in a significant Q2 price premium over subsequent quarters. Both Asian and European buyers are now competing for constrained LNG cargoes, with the region that moves first likely to influence the other's response [1].
A restoration of energy flows is unlikely before July or August, given the time required to backfill supply and return production to normal. The attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure have rendered a return to pre-war flows impossible [1].
CONCLUSION
The Ras Laffan strike and prolonged Hormuz closure have fundamentally altered the LNG supply landscape, driving TTF gas prices higher and creating a multi-year deficit. With both Asia and Europe vying for limited cargoes, market volatility and elevated prices are expected to persist until supply disruptions ease. Rabobank's revised forecasts underscore the high market impact and ongoing uncertainty in global LNG flows.