According to BNP Paribas, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year 2025, GDP growth also stood at 5.0%, with the bank forecasting a moderate slowdown in 2026 [1]. The report highlights a K-shaped expansion, characterized by robust export performance but weak domestic demand and an ongoing property sector crisis [1].
BNP Paribas notes that Chinese authorities are expected to maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies; however, these measures are anticipated to remain modest, particularly in the context of a less supportive global environment [1]. The bank also observes that deflationary pressures are likely to ease in 2026, attributing this to higher global energy prices and the implementation of anti-involution measures by the authorities [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond BNP Paribas' outlook are mentioned in the source. The report does not provide additional details on policy specifics, market forecasts, or sector-level impacts [1].
CONCLUSION
BNP Paribas projects that China's economic growth will slow moderately in 2026, following a 5.0% expansion in 2025. While policy support is expected to continue, it will likely remain modest, with easing deflationary pressures providing some relief. The persistence of weak domestic demand and property sector challenges remains a concern for the outlook.