Standard Chartered economists Dan Pan and Steve Englander analyzed the effects of the US Supreme Court's ruling disallowing IEEPA tariffs on US tariff revenue. They observed that while tariff income has declined following the ruling, the decrease was not as severe as some had anticipated. In the first two months after the decision, tariff revenue is projected to reach USD 25 billion in both March and April, indicating ongoing resilience in collections [1].
Despite the decline, current tariff revenue remains approximately 3.4 times higher than pre-Liberation Day levels, though it is below the end-2025 pace, when revenues were over four times 2024 levels [1]. The economists estimate that, at the current rate, the annualized revenue loss from the IEEPA ruling could total USD 60 billion. This reduction is significant but less drastic than widely expected, considering that IEEPA tariffs previously accounted for more than half of US tariff revenue [1].
The report notes that the 10% Section 122 blanket tariff, imposed after the Supreme Court ruling, has temporarily helped offset the revenue shortfall. However, this measure is only in place for 150 days and will expire on 24 July 2026, after which there is no perfect substitute to maintain revenue levels [1]. The economists caution that if the refund process for tariffs is prolonged, the fiscal impact may be contained, but further declines in revenue are possible as remedies expire and reimbursements accelerate [1].
CONCLUSION
US tariff revenue has shown resilience in the wake of the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling, with declines less severe than anticipated due to temporary measures like the Section 122 tariff. However, risks remain as these remedies are set to expire, potentially leading to further revenue drops and fiscal challenges.