Hybe, the company behind K-pop supergroup BTS, saw its shares jump 10% on Friday, significantly outperforming the broader Kospi index, which rose 2.9% [1]. This surge was fueled by an upbeat third-quarter earnings outlook, with analysts projecting Hybe's third-quarter revenue to reach 1.5 trillion won ($1.11 billion), up 106% from a year earlier. Operating profit is expected to hit 172.2 billion won, according to local brokerage firm iM Securities [1]. Concert revenue is forecasted at 717 billion won, nearly tripling from the previous year, driven by BTS' ongoing world tour and expanding tours by newer acts such as Enhypen, Katseye, and Cortis [1].
BTS' world tour featured 16 stadium shows in North America and eight in Europe during the third quarter, helping concert attendance reach nearly 3 million—a potential quarterly record for Hybe [1]. For the first time, Western markets accounted for more than 70% of total concert attendance, reflecting Hybe's growing international reach as its newer artists expand their presence in North America and Europe [1]. Despite currency headwinds, concert, merchandise, and licensing revenues are expected to reach record levels [1].
While higher royalty payments to established artists and initial touring costs for newer groups are expected to weigh on margins, iM Securities forecasts Hybe will maintain a double-digit operating margin, supported by the scale of BTS' world tour [1]. CGS Securities analyst Jiwoo Oh noted that although concerts and appearances carry steeper costs due to higher revenue sharing with artists, merchandise, content, and fan club businesses significantly boost Hybe's bottom line [1]. In the second quarter, Hybe delivered an 11.8% operating margin, with artist-direct revenue accounting for 72% of total sales and concerts alone making up 45% of total sales [1]. Jiwoo Oh stated, "We believe this demonstrates that stadium-scale operating leverage can more than offset the higher cost base associated with concerts" [1].
Previously, after Hybe reported second-quarter results on July 28, its shares crashed, wiping out as much as $1.96 billion in market cap in less than 24 hours. Analysts attributed the sell-off to profit margins missing expectations, despite record highs in revenue and operating profit [1]. However, the current outlook is buoyed by the profitability of newer bands and the company's expanding international presence [1].
CONCLUSION
Hybe's strong third-quarter outlook, driven by BTS' world tour and rising rookie groups, has sparked a sharp rebound in its share price. Record concert attendance and expanding international reach are expected to support sustained revenue and operating margins. The market is responding positively to Hybe's growth prospects and improved profitability outlook.