Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht reports that the global copper market experienced a significant supply surplus in the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to a sharp increase in refined copper production, especially in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The International Copper Study Group recorded a surplus of nearly 400,000 tons, which is three times higher than the surplus in the first quarter of 2025 [1]. Despite this current oversupply, demand for copper grew by less than 1% during the same period [1].
Looking ahead, Lambrecht anticipates a reversal in these trends. She expects demand momentum to strengthen while production growth slows, leading to a tighter market balance. This shift is projected to support higher copper prices in the medium term [1]. Commerzbank has set a year-end copper price target of USD 14,000 per ton, reflecting their expectation of stronger consumption and moderated supply growth [1].
No immediate market reactions or analyst opinions beyond Commerzbank’s forecast are discussed in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank highlights a current oversupply in the copper market but anticipates a tightening balance and higher prices by year-end. The bank’s forecast of USD 14,000 per ton signals optimism for copper’s medium-term outlook, driven by expected stronger demand and slower production growth.