The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) experienced marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 0.5820 after rebounding from session lows of 0.5795. The pair remains under pressure following a rejection above 0.5860 on Monday, influenced by a cautious market mood and mixed economic data from China, a significant trading partner for New Zealand. Specifically, Chinese industrial production rose by 4.5% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations of 4.4%, while retail sales fell by 0.6% against expectations of no change, indicating continued weakness in domestic demand [1].
Market sentiment has shifted to a more cautious stance as investors await further details on the US-Iran peace deal, particularly regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. This uncertainty has lent support to the US Dollar, with investors hesitant to take positions ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday [1]. Technical analysis suggests NZD/USD is forming an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, typically a bullish signal, but momentum indicators such as the RSI (around 50) and MACD (slightly negative) point to a lack of strong recovery momentum. Key resistance levels are identified at 0.5857 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), 0.5890 (June 4 and 5 highs), and 0.5910 (61.8% retracement), while support is seen at 0.5800, 0.5760, and the year-to-date low of 0.5680 [1].
In the cross-currency market, EUR/JPY pulled back toward 185.50 after two days of gains, trading around 185.60 during early European hours. Despite the pullback, the pair maintains a mild bullish bias as it remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day RSI at 54 suggests a constructive but not overextended upside, as long as the price stays above the medium-term average. The technical outlook indicates EUR/JPY is moving within an ascending channel, with primary resistance at the six-week high of 186.21 (June 5), and further targets at the all-time high of 187.95 (April 17) and the upper channel boundary at 188.20. On the downside, immediate support is at the nine-day EMA of 185.39 and the 50-day EMA of 185.12, with further declines potentially exposing the lower channel boundary at 184.70 and multi-month lows at 181.87 (March 16) and 180.81 (February 12) [2].
Currency heat maps show that the New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar, while the Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar on the day [1][2]. No explicit analyst opinions or forward-looking statements beyond technical analysis were provided in the sources.
CONCLUSION
The NZD/USD pair remains vulnerable amid cautious market sentiment and mixed Chinese data, with technical indicators suggesting limited recovery potential. EUR/JPY, while pulling back, retains a bullish technical structure above key moving averages. Overall, both pairs are at critical technical junctures, with upcoming events such as the Federal Reserve decision likely to influence further market direction.