Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen reports that German industrial production declined by 0.3% month-on-month in February, with manufacturing output also slightly lower, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector [1]. This decline suggests that first-quarter production will be lower compared to the final quarter of 2025, resulting in only marginal overall economic growth for Germany [1]. Dr. Solveen notes that recent trends in new factory orders and production have largely moved sideways since the end of 2024, offering little hope for a short-term industrial recovery [1].
In the UK, Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects GDP to rebound by 0.2% month-on-month in February after a flat January, with the possibility of an upward revision to January’s GDP figures [2]. The bank’s nowcast models indicate broad-based momentum across services, production, and construction sectors for February, with balanced risks around the forecast [2]. However, Deutsche Bank projects that UK GDP growth will slow in the future, with Q2-26 GDP growth expected at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.3% in Q1-26, and 2026 GDP growth forecast at just 0.7%, citing higher uncertainty and tighter financial conditions as dampening factors [2].
While Germany’s industrial sector continues to struggle with no signs of imminent recovery, the UK is experiencing a modest short-term rebound but faces a subdued outlook for 2026, according to the respective analysts [1][2].
CONCLUSION
Germany’s industrial sector remains weak with little sign of recovery, while the UK is expected to see a modest GDP rebound in February but faces a soft growth outlook for 2026. Both economies are characterized by fragile momentum and ongoing uncertainty, according to Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank analysts.