BNP Paribas asserts that the United States' recent economic growth outperformance is primarily attributed to strong productivity gains, rather than immediate benefits from Artificial Intelligence (AI) [1]. The bank highlights that since 2022, US growth has demonstrated resilience despite facing multiple shocks, including inflation, monetary tightening, and tariffs [1]. According to BNP Paribas forecasts, this robust growth is expected to persist into 2026 and 2027, with productivity improvements serving as the main catalyst [1].
Specifically, the report notes that hourly labour productivity growth averaged +2.4% annually between 2023 and 2025, a significant increase compared to the +1.3% annual average recorded between 2014 and 2019 [1]. This surge follows a temporary spike during the pandemic, which the bank describes as a 'bump' before a subsequent correction [1].
While AI is not seen as the immediate driver of current productivity gains, BNP Paribas expects it to play a moderate but supportive role in long-term GDP growth [1]. The bank states that expectations of future productivity improvements from AI are already underpinning the current investment cycle in the US [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond BNP Paribas' outlook are mentioned in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
BNP Paribas identifies strong productivity gains as the primary force behind the US's resilient economic growth, with AI expected to provide additional support in the medium to long term. The bank forecasts that this productivity-driven expansion will continue through 2026 and 2027. Market participants may view this outlook as a positive signal for sustained US economic strength.