The Polish Zloty (PLN) has emerged as the top underperformer among Central and Eastern European (CE3) currencies in 2026, lagging behind the Czech Koruna (CZK) and Hungarian Forint (HUF), according to Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose [1]. This underperformance is attributed primarily to heightened political risk, which has overshadowed macroeconomic fundamentals [1].
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) had previously embarked on a credible, data-driven easing cycle, supported by disinflation and stable expectations [1]. However, the onset of the Iran war and a surge in oil prices have reignited inflation risks, prompting the NBP to shift from further rate cuts to a forced pause [1]. Policymakers have indicated that the March rate cut will be the last for 2026, with no scope for additional easing in the near term due to the renewed inflationary environment [1].
Fiscal interventions, such as government-imposed fuel price caps, and ongoing political uncertainty have kept the risk premium on the PLN elevated [1]. As a result, both EUR/PLN and USD/PLN are expected to experience mild medium-term depreciation [1]. In the near term, the zloty faces further downside pressure from increased global risk aversion toward emerging markets and persistent uncertainty in energy markets [1].
CONCLUSION
The Polish Zloty remains under pressure due to a combination of political risk and energy market shocks, with the National Bank of Poland pausing its easing cycle amid rising inflation risks. Market participants should expect continued volatility and a mild depreciation trend for the PLN in the medium term.