OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tighten its policy on 14 April 2026 by increasing the slope of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) band, aiming to counter rising imported inflation pressures [1]. The strategists note that market expectations are skewed towards policy tightening, with the focus on the choice of policy levers and the tone of the MAS statement [1].
According to OCBC, a hawkish shift in MAS's tone could result in the S$NEER hovering near the upper bound of its policy band, and may trigger modest downside pressure on USD/SGD, provided the broader USD trend remains balanced [1]. However, if MAS adopts a more balanced tone, the reaction in USD/SGD may be more muted [1].
From a technical perspective, OCBC highlights resistance levels for USD/SGD at 1.2780 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November high to 2026 low), 1.2810 (21, 100-day moving averages), and 1.2840/50 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day moving average). Key support is identified at 1.2710 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a decisive break pointing to the next support at 1.2620 [1].
The strategists emphasize that the MAS decision and its accompanying statement will be closely watched for signals on policy direction, which could influence the SGD's trajectory and USD/SGD trading levels in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
OCBC expects MAS to tighten policy to address imported inflation, with potential for modest USD/SGD downside if the tone is hawkish. Technical levels suggest key resistance and support points to monitor. The MAS decision and statement will be pivotal for short-term market direction.