Oil prices have stabilized following US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the Iran energy deadline to 6 April, which has temporarily eased immediate market pressure but maintained a geopolitical premium, according to ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson [1]. The analysts emphasize that the risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside due to ongoing regional tensions and significant supply disruptions. Currently, around 8 million barrels per day are offline, and a much larger volume of flows through the Gulf remains vulnerable, suggesting that the geopolitical premium is unlikely to diminish substantially [1].
The situation is further complicated by continued attacks from both sides and reports of the US reinforcing its military presence in the region, which keeps concerns over supply disruptions elevated [1]. In the LNG market, supply risks have intensified after a tropical cyclone forced production cuts at three Australian LNG plants, which together account for approximately 8% of global supply [1]. These disruptions add to earlier shocks, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Qatar’s largest liquefaction facility following attacks, further tightening the already strained market and increasing price pressure for Asian buyers [1].
ING analysts note that while the extension of the ceasefire has reduced some near-term market heat, the overall risk environment remains heightened, with both oil and LNG markets facing significant supply-side challenges [1].
CONCLUSION
The extension of the Iran energy deadline has steadied oil prices, but substantial supply risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support a high risk premium. Both oil and LNG markets remain vulnerable to further disruptions, suggesting continued upward pressure on prices and heightened market volatility.