Deutsche Bank analysts Shreyas Gopal and Sanjay Raja report that UK consumer confidence in March 2026 was unexpectedly resilient, positioned between the levels observed during the onset of the Covid crisis in March 2020 and the early stages of the 2022 European energy shock [1]. The analysts highlight that the current reading reflects a broad starting point for consumer confidence, which is neither as low as the Covid lockdown period nor as high as pre-energy crisis levels [1].
However, the report underscores that rising fuel prices, the ongoing global oil crisis, and heightened geopolitical risks threaten to erode this resilience and negatively impact UK consumer spending and economic growth [1]. Deutsche Bank notes that since the survey concluded, fuel prices have continued to climb, and without a ceasefire or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it would be surprising to see sustained resilience in UK consumer confidence in the coming months [1]. This concern is reinforced by the much weaker BRC Consumer Confidence data, suggesting that the broader trend may be turning negative [1].
No specific numerical values, percentages, or dates for consumer confidence levels or fuel price increases were provided in the article. The analysts' commentary points to a cautious outlook, with the potential for further deterioration in consumer sentiment if geopolitical tensions and fuel price pressures persist [1].
CONCLUSION
UK consumer confidence remains resilient for now, but Deutsche Bank warns that rising fuel costs and ongoing geopolitical risks could quickly undermine this stability. The outlook for UK spending and growth is increasingly uncertain, with analysts expecting further weakness if current trends continue.