ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya anticipate continued volatility for the Hungarian Forint (HUF), citing ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming April 2026 elections as key factors influencing market sentiment [1]. They forecast the EUR/HUF currency pair to oscillate within the 385–390 range, with fundamentals likely to pull the pair back toward 385 after any result-driven swings [1].
The central bank is described as being 'as cautious as possible,' actively utilizing its FX reserves to redirect import-related FX market flows if necessary. This intervention is expected to reinforce the 385–390 range as a 'gravity line' for EUR/HUF [1]. ING notes that monetary policy will likely remain sidelined in the near term, with the energy situation or political developments determining the currency's direction [1].
On the political front, ING predicts asymmetric investor reactions, as long positions related to political bets have largely been liquidated. Regardless of whether a rally or sell-off occurs following election results, ING expects these moves to be short-lived, with fundamentals ultimately restoring EUR/HUF to around 385 once the dust settles [1].
CONCLUSION
ING expects the Hungarian Forint to remain volatile due to geopolitical and political factors, but sees the EUR/HUF pair stabilizing around 385 in the medium term. Monetary policy is likely to remain inactive, with fundamentals guiding the currency after any short-lived market reactions. Investors should anticipate continued uncertainty but eventual stabilization in the EUR/HUF exchange rate.