Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, including the Hungarian Forint (HUF) and Polish Złoty (PLN), have demonstrated relative resilience into the fourth week of the ongoing conflict, supported by high real rates and liquidity, according to BNY’s Bob Savage [1]. Despite deteriorating fundamentals and aggressive rate hikes in Western Europe, these currencies have maintained solid holdings, with HUF flows remaining robust over the past week except for strong outflows at the conflict's onset. The Hungarian government’s early enactment of energy price guarantees has raised concerns about fiscal credibility, yet HUF continues to be one of the best performers in the EMEA region across asset classes [1].
The upcoming decision by the MNB (central bank of Hungary) is seen as a crucial test for high-yielding currencies. The expectation is that the MNB will keep rates on hold, and if near-term CPI figures align with previous forecasts, a 300-400 basis point real rate buffer should be sufficient to limit outflows. However, energy and labor supply dynamics could quickly erode real rates, and with aggressive rate hikes anticipated in Western Europe, CEE central banks may need to pivot rapidly to preserve FX resilience [1].
PLN and HUF continue to offer liquidity and attractive real rates, offsetting policy risks for now. Nevertheless, the risk environment is intensifying, and if the energy crisis worsens, markets may need to reassess their exposures to these currencies. In contrast, the Romanian Leu (RON) and Czech Koruna (CZK) are underperforming. CZK has not been favored in a strong carry context, while RON is now one of the worst-performing currencies in iFlow due to its low current real rates. RON was the first major EM FX carry name to move into a materially underheld position, now joined by currencies with stressed balances of payments, where currency weakness exacerbates poor real rate positions [1].
Overall, CEE FX flows mirror broader emerging market FX trends, with real rates and liquidity providing temporary support amid growing policy and fiscal risks. The outlook remains cautious, as further deterioration in energy and labor dynamics could undermine the resilience of these currencies [1].
CONCLUSION
CEE currencies such as HUF and PLN have shown resilience due to high real rates and liquidity, but face mounting risks from deteriorating fundamentals and aggressive Western European rate hikes. The upcoming MNB decision and evolving energy dynamics will be key tests for their continued strength. Investors should remain cautious, as worsening conditions could prompt a reassessment of exposures.