Commerzbank economists Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner state that the current oil shock, triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil production and loading facilities in the Persian Gulf, has resulted in a sharper fall in global oil production than any oil crisis in the past 50 years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), daily crude oil production has likely fallen by at least 10 million barrels since the start of the Iran War, representing approximately 12% of global oil production [1].
Despite this significant supply disruption, oil prices have risen much less than during the oil crises of the 1970s. The annual average oil price in 1974 was 250% higher than in 1973, and in 1979, a barrel of crude oil was about 125% more expensive than the previous year’s average. In contrast, even under pessimistic assumptions for the coming months, the price this year is likely to be at most 60% higher than the previous year’s average [1].
The economists attribute the softer macroeconomic impact to several factors: smaller price increases, lower oil intensity in advanced economies, and the presence of strategic reserves. They note that oil consumption in developed countries has declined over the past 50 years despite rising economic output, resulting in a smaller loss of purchasing power compared to the first oil crisis. For example, the first oil crisis caused Germany’s oil bill to rise by 2.5% of GDP and Japan’s by nearly 4% of GDP, whereas the current crisis is projected to increase the oil bill by only 0.5% to 1% of GDP for the four countries examined, assuming an annual average oil price increase of $40 per barrel [1].
Commerzbank’s analysis concludes that the consequences of the current energy crisis are unlikely to match the impact of the first oil crisis of 1973–74. However, they caution that risks remain, particularly if supply chain disruptions persist or if there is prolonged damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, which could still significantly hurt economic growth [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank economists believe that, despite a sharper drop in oil production than in previous crises, the current oil shock is less damaging to advanced economies due to smaller price increases, lower oil intensity, and strategic reserves. However, they warn that ongoing supply chain disruptions or extended damage to Gulf infrastructure could still pose significant risks to growth.