West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, experienced a retreat from its nearly four-week high of $106.45 during the Asian session, slipping below the $104.00 mark in the last hour despite ongoing supply risks [1]. The downside appears limited, as supply concerns persist due to rising geopolitical tensions and the threat of disruptions to global trade routes [1]. US President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, while Iran introduced new conditions for reopening the strategic waterway, escalating the risk of further supply disruptions [1].
A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, has capped the upside for the USD-denominated commodity [1]. From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a bullish near-term bias, supported by last week's rebound from the rising 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakout above the $100.00 psychological mark [1]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, suggesting buyers are regaining control after a brief loss of momentum [1].
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 61, indicating sustained upside pressure without signs of exhaustion, and any pullback is likely to attract buyers around $102.00, with stronger support near $99.50 [1]. The rising 100-period EMA, now below $94.00, suggests that deeper dips toward the low-$90s would be viewed as corrective while the broader uptrend remains intact [1]. On the upside, resistance is seen at the recent peak near $105.70, and a clear break above this level could open the way toward the $108.00 region [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices have retreated from recent highs but remain supported by ongoing supply risks and geopolitical tensions. Technical indicators point to a bullish bias, with buyers likely to step in on pullbacks and resistance levels identified for further upside. The market remains volatile, with geopolitical developments and US monetary policy acting as key drivers.