Commerzbank analyst Ghose anticipates that Turkey's May Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show only a modest moderation in month-on-month inflation following April's spike, with inflation momentum remaining uncomfortably high [1]. The focus is on seasonally adjusted monthly data, which is expected to reflect a consensus forecast of a 2.5% month-on-month increase for May, still marking one of the stronger monthly readings of 2026 [1]. Ghose notes that the underlying causes of elevated inflation, such as higher commodity and energy prices, persist and that a modest easing in May does not indicate a return to underlying disinflation [1].
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is highlighted for its reluctance to hike interest rates, a stance that Commerzbank views as increasingly problematic given the recent acceleration in Turkish lira depreciation [1]. Ghose warns that if policymakers continue to signal no consideration of rate hikes, there is an increased risk that lira depreciation will accelerate further in the coming months, which would add additional pressure to inflation [1].
The Turkish statistics office is set to release May CPI and PPI data, and while a slight moderation in inflation is expected, the overall inflation momentum remains a concern for analysts [1]. No specific market reactions or analyst forecasts beyond Commerzbank's warnings are mentioned in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank highlights persistent inflation and renewed lira depreciation risks in Turkey, emphasizing the CBRT's reluctance to raise rates as a key concern. The outlook suggests that without policy tightening, further currency weakness and inflationary pressures are likely. Market participants are cautioned to monitor upcoming inflation data and central bank signals closely.