The ongoing war in the Middle East has significantly disrupted several key economic sectors, including aviation, tourism, and maritime transport, with effects extending far beyond the region itself [1]. Airlines were among the first to feel the impact, as carriers cancelled flights to the region. Qatar Airways has cancelled nearly 91 percent of its flights since hostilities began on February 28, according to Cirium, while Etihad has cancelled nearly three-quarters and Emirates nearly half of their flights [1]. Although Middle Eastern airlines represent only 9.5 percent of global capacity, their role as major hubs for long-haul travel between Europe and Asia has amplified the disruption [1]. All airlines are facing soaring jet fuel prices, which have more than doubled from pre-war levels. Fuel typically accounts for 25-33 percent of airline operating costs, and some carriers have responded by adding surcharges or raising fares. Service schedules are also being cut back due to higher fuel costs and limited stocks, exacerbated by conflict-related disruptions and export restrictions [1].
Tourism is also suffering, with Oxford Economics estimating an 11-27 percent drop in visitor arrivals to the Middle East this year, compared to a previously forecast 13 percent growth, even if the conflict ends quickly [1]. The broader impact is expected to be global, as Middle Eastern airlines serve as important travel hubs and fare increases are affecting travelers everywhere. Oxford Economics projects a reduction of 116 million visits and 858 million hotel nights outside the Middle East this year [1]. Some countries, such as Spain and Portugal, may benefit from tourists seeking alternative destinations. In Europe, hotel revenue per room dropped six percent during the first week of the war, with subsequent declines of one percent in Britain and France, but much steeper drops in Ireland (23.5 percent) and Portugal (15.4 percent), both of which rely heavily on foreign tourists [1].
Maritime transport, which carries 80 percent of global traded goods, is also affected. Fuel costs for ships have risen by an average of 20 percent, increasing overall shipping expenses [1]. While shipping between Asia and North America has seen little impact, routes between Asia and Europe, as well as Asia and Africa, have been disrupted due to the strategic importance of Gulf and Red Sea ports as transfer zones [1].
CONCLUSION
The Middle East conflict is causing widespread disruptions across aviation, tourism, and maritime transport, with sharp declines in flight schedules, visitor arrivals, hotel revenues, and increased fuel costs. The effects are global, impacting travel and shipping routes far beyond the region. Market sentiment is negative, and the economic fallout is expected to be significant and prolonged.