According to OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, Gold experienced a technical rebound last Friday following a near 20% drawdown since the onset of the Iran conflict [1]. The strategists note that while there is scope for a near-term rebound, the sustainability of this move remains uncertain [1]. Key resistance levels for Gold are identified at 4,624 (100DMA), 4,670 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), and 4,850 (50% Fibonacci retracement), with a more durable recovery likely requiring prices to reclaim and hold above these levels [1].
The macro environment continues to pose challenges for Gold, as higher real yields and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts act as headwinds [1]. OCBC emphasizes that these factors make it difficult for Gold to achieve a sustained recovery, despite the recent technical bounce [1]. No specific market reactions or analyst opinions regarding future price movements beyond these resistance levels are provided in the source [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold's recent rebound is viewed as technical and faces significant resistance levels, with the macro backdrop remaining unfavorable due to higher real yields and diminished Fed cut expectations. The sustainability of the recovery is uncertain, and a more durable uptrend would require Gold to reclaim key resistance points. Overall, the outlook remains cautious given prevailing headwinds.