German manufacturing orders increased by 1.9% in May compared to April, according to Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner, with the rise remaining at 1.0% even when excluding large, volatile orders [1]. This uptick exceeded economists’ expectations, who had anticipated an increase of just over 1% [1]. The data points to a moderate upward trend in German industry, following a prolonged period of stagnation and recent challenges, including the impact of the war in Iran [1].
Dr. Wagner interprets the figures as a sign that business activity is gradually picking up in the manufacturing sector, supporting the outlook for a moderate recovery in German industry [1]. However, he cautions that a strong recovery is not expected at this stage [1]. The broader German economy is also projected to see a slight recovery after what is likely a small decline in the second quarter of the year [1].
Looking ahead, Commerzbank maintains its forecast for 0.6% growth in the German economy for the full year 2026, reflecting a cautious but positive outlook based on the current trajectory of manufacturing orders [1].
CONCLUSION
The stronger-than-expected rise in German manufacturing orders in May provides hope for a moderate recovery in the industrial sector. While the outlook remains cautious, the data supports expectations for a slight economic rebound and continued gradual growth into 2026.