SpaceX is set to report earnings after the bell on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, with options market-makers pricing approximately a 6% stock swing following the announcement [1]. This expected volatility is significantly lower than the 13% move that followed the company's inaugural earnings report in August, which marked a market low before the stock rallied 60% over the subsequent two months, though it has since declined as much as 19% in the past two weeks [1].
Options traders are displaying decidedly bullish sentiment heading into the earnings release [1]. Among 1.1 million contracts traded Monday—20% higher than the 30-day average—665,000 were calls with more bought than sold, according to Cboe LiveVol data [1]. The most popular call contract for Friday expiry was the 170-strike, requiring approximately a 14% rally to break even, while notable buying also occurred in the 190-strike call for month-end expiry, a 40-cent contract requiring a 29% rally to profitability [1]. Traders have also bought more calls than puts and sold more puts than they bought, reflecting bullish positioning [1].
SpaceX has had an active three months, delivering four astronauts to the International Space Station in record time, expanding its mobile network spectrum, reportedly eyeing a $40 billion debt deal to purchase Nvidia chips, and with CEO Elon Musk announcing plans to give shares to every child in America next year [1]. However, the stock will face two additional share lockup period releases following earnings—one scheduled two days after the report and another on October 26—together representing over 1.6 billion eligible shares for sale [1]. Previous lockup releases on September 9, 10, and 24 had no discernible effect on share price [1]. Implied volatility has declined substantially compared to the previous quarter, with SpaceX trading at an IV of 62 on Monday versus above 110 before the second-quarter earnings release [1].
CONCLUSION
Options traders are positioning for a modest 6% post-earnings move in SpaceX stock, with bullish call flow dominating trading activity despite lower implied volatility compared to the previous quarter. The company's recent operational achievements and strategic initiatives appear to be supporting positive sentiment, though upcoming share lockup releases totaling over 1.6 billion shares present a potential headwind for the stock price.