TD Securities analysts expect US economic data releases to bolster the Dollar in the coming days, focusing on February retail sales and ISM Manufacturing figures [1]. The analysts forecast headline retail sales to increase by 0.6% month-over-month in February, rebounding from a 0.2% contraction, and surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.5% [1]. They attribute this expected strength to rebounds in volatile auto and gas sales, which had declined in the previous two reports, and anticipate food services sales to rise for the first time since November [1].
For the retail sales control group, TD Securities projects a positive print of 0.4%, above the consensus of 0.3% [1]. On the manufacturing front, ISM Manufacturing is expected to rise for the third consecutive month in March, reaching 53.0, with broad-based gains across components as indicated by regional Fed surveys (consensus: 52.3) [1].
The analysts caution that mounting geopolitical concerns, particularly from the Iran conflict, pose downside risks to these optimistic forecasts [1]. Additionally, inflation-sensitive components, such as prices paid, will be closely monitored, as this metric spiked higher in February and could remain elevated amid rising price pressures [1].
TD Securities also notes upcoming speeches by Musalem and Barr, with Barr focusing on AI and the consumer, which may provide further market insights [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities projects stronger-than-expected US retail sales and ISM Manufacturing data, which could support the Dollar in the near term. However, geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures remain key factors to watch. The market is likely to react to these data releases and any signals from upcoming Fed speeches.