Standard Chartered has highlighted the growing risk of a significant rightward shift in Europe's political landscape by 2027, with major elections scheduled in France, Spain, Italy, and Poland. The bank identifies France's 2027 presidential race as particularly critical, warning that a victory by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) would be negative for markets due to France's substantial political and economic influence within Europe [1].
The report notes that a rightward pivot could have the most visible impact within the European Council, where consensus-building traditions may allow far-right leaders to exert greater influence over negotiations and potentially use national vetoes on issues requiring unanimity [1]. In the European Parliament, this shift could pressure the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) to collaborate more closely with far-right groups. At the European Commission level, a more right-leaning Council could restrict the political agenda of President von der Leyen [1].
Standard Chartered also points out that while right-wing and far-right governments may not always agree on specific policy changes, their collective influence could be most pronounced in their ability to block or dilute the existing EU agenda. This could result in political paralysis in areas such as climate, migration, and trade policy, as the capacity to implement or change policies may be hindered by increased opposition and the use of veto powers [1].
CONCLUSION
Standard Chartered sees a material risk of a rightward shift in European politics by 2027, with France's presidential election being a key focal point. The bank warns that such a shift could create market uncertainty and political paralysis within EU institutions, particularly in areas requiring consensus. Investors should monitor upcoming elections and potential changes in EU policy direction.